The lack of US intelligence

Yesterday was a tough day for American Intelligence agencies. At an open hearing before the House Intelligence Committee, two rather strange statements were provided by CIA head Leon Panetta and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper. Director Panetta stated that he anticipated that Egypt’s President, Hosni Mubarack would resign his position by the end of the day. DNI Clapper stated that the Muslim Brotherhood was “largely secular” and has “eschewed violence.” Both of these statements seem to defy logic and bring into question how reliable our intelligence services are. While Panetta was only a day off, it still shows how important having credible and reliable intelligence is to the operation of the US government. Both of these statements provided our allies and enemies across the world a rare glimpse into exactly how bad our intelligence situation is. Our government relies on the intelligence briefings it receives. These briefings help our government make its decisions. With faulty, mistaken, or flat out wrong intelligence, the actions of our government are severely hindered.

The residents of Egypt were able to finally get what they have been protesting for the past eighteen days for, a removal of the reign of 30 year leader/dictator Hosni Mubarack. This change in power can lead to a lot of uncertainty in the Middle East. What type of government is going to take hold in Egypt? For now, the military is taking over. Is that same military going to still be an ally of the US? While they get $1.3 billion in US aid each year, no one knows for certain what the future holds for Egypt and our relationship with its new government. While the will of the people seem to have taken hold, one can only hope that the new government in Egypt provides a model for other countries in the region by providing a democracy for its citizens. Maybe this change in government in Egypt will provoke a change in government in countries like Iran. However, we are unlikely to be able to rely on our intelligence services to provide adequate predictions for when or if such a change would happen.