Friday, August 29, 2008

I LIKE THE PICK

Today, Senator John McCain picked Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his Vice President, surprising all the supposed experts. I like the pick. I think it was an under the radar, outside DC choice that has left the Obama campaign saying, "Huh?" It caught them flat footed and also doesn't allow them to run the same type of ads that McCain was able to run showing the disagreements between Biden and Obama. I think the Obama response was fascinating in that the campaign Communications director went after small town America. This is the second time that his campaign has basically made fun of small towns and enhances the elists perception that America has about Obama. I think the pick also goes against the Obama slogan of Change. Their campaign is two men from the most exclusive club in the world, the US Senate. Two members of the DC establishment don't really personify changing Washington. She is also the only person running with executive experience.

The McCain campaign did a great job of teasing America about who the pick was going to be and when the pick was going to be announced. Yesterday, when all the rumors started flying that he would make the announcement through a TV ad placed last night, the Obama campaign called it campaign malpractice, since it would take away from Obama's speech. The talk continued last night about Romney jumping on a plane with an overnight bag, and Pawlenty canceling his schedule for today, which just fueled the talk about the McCain campaign as opposed to Obama's speech. Then to have the McCain team place the congratulatory ad by McCain to Obama last night instead of a VP announcement ad also got a lot of positive press coverage and got the Obama people on the defensive. The ability to keep the choice a secret until about 10:30am this morning was really impressive and completely changed the story of the day. Instead of the cable talk sows talking about how great Obama's speech was last night, it was all about who the pick was going to be. The McCain choice is the story of the day and that should be a positive for McCain. I think she appeals to social conservatives; there was an interview on CNN this morning where a reporter from the Christian Broadcast Network was speaking about how excited the grassroots social conservatives were over the pick. If they are motivated to get out and help, it is a huge benefit to McCain. Also, if she is able to pick off any of the 18 million Clinton supporters, that is just icing on the cake. It should be interesting, but she needs to get a crash course in foreign policy and economic policy that she can articulate as opposed to Obama and Biden.

ROCK STAR CELEBRITY

ROCK STAR CELEBRITY, August 29, 2008
Last night, Senator Barack Obama delivered his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in Denver. In a speech that lasted about 45 minutes, Obama attempted to prove that he is ready to be President. It was a good speech, but I think that it missed a few critical points.
Senator Obama started off his speech with a little personal background. He spoke of being raised by a single mom and his grandparents. He talked of the attributes that his grandmother instilled in him which has driven him in his life. He then went on the attack against Senator John McCain. According to MSNBC, 19 different attacks were provided. The final part of the speech, which I thought was by far the best portion of the speech, was similar to the old Reagan speeches of a shining city on a hill. He talked of the greatest that America is, and how we need to get back to that ideal. This was a speech that very few people in the world could ever give. It was before about 85,000 people at Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium in Denver, where the Broncos play. The weather was perfect, and the celebrities including Oprah, Will I Am, Sheryl Crow, Matthew Modine was all there. The stage was developed by the same production company that designed the set for the last Brittany Spears concert tour. It was an event that was staged incredibly.
There were two lines in the speech that stood out for me. The first line from Senator Obama was, “If John McCain wants to have a debate about who has the temperament, and judgment, to serve as the next Commander-in-Chief, that’s a debate I’m ready to have.” This line is interesting because less than two months ago, Senator McCain suggested to Senator Obama that they have a town hall debates across the country that would give the American public the opportunity to see both candidates together and allow them to ask questions. Obviously, Senator Obama declined this offer. Now two months later, with his poll numbers dropping, Senator Obama offers up almost the same request. Strange…
The second line that stood out to me was, “Because if you don’t have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare the voters. If you don’t have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from.” One thing that stood out during the Democratic convention was that there was no one who said that they had know Senator Obama for years and this is what he believes in. There was no one from the Senate or the Illinois State House that came forward and said this is who he is and what he believes in. What does this mean, it means that very few people know the Senator and the Senator has a very light resume. Senator Obama’s lack of experience is one of his greatest challenges during this campaign. One of the reasons he picked Senator Joe Biden as his Vice President was hi slack of foreign policy experience. The Obama pick was meant to shore up one of his biggest weaknesses.
This morning has also brought the McCain campaign’s pick for Vice President, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. The mother of five children, including a new born recently diagnosed with Down Syndrome and another one who last year signed up for the Army, brings a youthful, female candidate to the ticket. It will be interesting to see how the Democrats try to define her. If they state that she is inexperienced, they then will have to deal with the same issue themselves. She does have executive experience, she is from outside Washington, and she is the only women. It should be a very interesting campaign over the past few months.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

DNC DAY 2

DNC Convention, Days 1 & 2, August 27, 2008
The Democratic convention in Denver has been rather strange as compared to “normal” national party conventions. Most of the press coverage has been over the perceived rift between the Obama and Clinton campaigns. The fact that everyone is talking about the rift, should cause the Democrats a lot of concern. In this election year, the Democrats should be ahead of all Republicans by a wide margin. According to public polls, the Obama and McCain campaigns are within the margin of error, 44-43. Obama has a slight lead, but one would expect him to be up by at least 7 or 8 points at this point.
The Obama campaign did not get any bounce after the Biden announcement. In fact, on Tuesday, the daily tracking poll had McCain ahead by a point. Michelle Obama’s speech Monday night was an impressive speech by a non-politician. However, the one thing that she did not really speak about was who Senator Obama really is. A lot of us believed that she should give us a little background or stories to personify Senator Obama. The only “story” she told was of the drive home after the birth of their first child. This type of story, I think, is what America was striving for. Americans don’t know Senator Obama that well and the person that knows him the best, didn’t really tell us much about him. Last night, the Democrats moved the time of the keynote address by former Virginia Governor and current Senate candidate Mark Warner since he decided he was not going to be a hatchet man for the Obama campaign. I can’t remember a time when a party switched the schedule due to the fact that a speaker wasn’t aggressive enough. Governor Warner was thought to be a serious Presidential candidate and many also thought that he would be on most short lists for Vice President. Obviously, the Obama campaign had other thoughts.
The big speech on Tuesday was by New York Senator Hillary Clinton. Senator Clinton gave Obama her full support, but spent the majority of her speech talking about herself, not Senator Obama. Her basic message was that Senator Obama basically agrees with her on most issues, and in fact has taken her position on most issues so he can’t be too bad. She did not talk about how her opinion during the primary campaign of Senator Obama that he was not qualified to be President, was wrong or that he was in fact ready to be President today. The speech seemed to be a speech laying out her 2012 or 2016 campaign for President. She struck the liberal positions on health care, trade, taxes, corporate greed, and women rights. She gave a positive speech for her possible upcoming campaigns.
The speeches shown on the news have been impressive in terms of the way they were given. However, many issues were missing and not much was given in terms of what the Obama-Biden ticket would do for the American people. There have not been policy proposals that would address concerns of America – energy policy, foreign policy, national security issues. Nothing has been said on the issues that Americans care about. Is it because the Obama campaign doesn’t have the experience and the policy positions that Americans want? He has changed his view on drilling to appease the strong American concern with $4 a gallon gasoline, however this position is not the position of the liberal, environmentalists that support the Democrats. I guess they didn’t want to alienate some of their strongest supporters even though most Americans believe that this position is wrong.
I guess that is what this convention is all about, not rocking the boat. In the meantime however, the McCain campaign has been aggressively portraying Obama as inexperienced. They are out in force in Denver and have been putting out a new television ad every day. The ads have a Clinton delegate to the convention (who lost her spot at the convention) talking about her support for McCain. Today during the “national security” portion of the convention they released an ad, “Tiny” where the words of Obama about Iran being a tiny country and not much of a threat. This ad doesn’t really do much to strengthen the view of Obama’s character and show his foreign policy experience. The McCain team seems to have won the first few days of the campaign; this seems evident in the Rasmussen daily tracking poll that has the race tied 44-44. If I were part of the Obama team, I would be rather worried at this point.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

VP Choice

VP CHOICE, August 26, 2008
As anyone that has ever been involved in national Presidential campaigns, one of the most important decisions a candidate for President must make is who their Vice Presidential nominee will be. Over the weekend, Senator Barack Obama announced that Delaware Senator Joe Biden was his choice.
The Obama campaign created quite a stir in their announcement. In the weeks and days leading up to the announcement in Springfield, IL, the campaign was able to generate thousands of emails from interested parties that were promised that by providing their contact information, they would be the first to know who the choice was. I am not sure how many new email addresses the campaign was able to get, but it can only help in their fundraising attempts to pay for the general election. Word of the Biden choice got out early Friday evening, which kind of deflated the rationale for providing one’s contact information. I wonder how many times each contact address will be hit up for money and to volunteer?
There are many reasons to choose a particular person to be one’s Vice President. A number of the reasons include: age, demographic background, home state that might be in play during the general election, and to strengthen a perceived weakness of the Presidential nominee. The Obama team decided that they needed to shore up a weakness of the Senator – his lack of foreign policy experience. Senator Biden has been a Senator from Delaware since 1972, and is currently the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
I believe that Senator Obama does not really gain anything by having Senator Biden on the ticket. First, very few people have ever even heard of Senator Biden. Those that have, probably remember his disastrous 1988 Presidential campaign where he was forced from the race over a plagiarism charge. Senator Biden has a well deserved reputation of being long-winded. It typically seems that he is trying to prove that he knows more about the subject than the questioner and that he is in fact smarter than the questioner. This however was not Biden’s first run in with plagiarism. According to Slate magazine’s Jack Shafer, “As E.J. Dionne Jr. reported in the previously mentioned Times article, he "plagiarized a law review article for a paper he wrote in his first year at law school" at the Syracuse University College of Law. According to a Dec. 1, 1965, report by the law school, five pages of Biden's 15-page paper were copied without quotation or attribution.” One would think that if they truly believe that they are smarter than would have learned that it is easy to find out if you are copying someone else’s work. I would imagine that the nation will get to know about the plagiarism charges through television ads and comments from the RNC and McCain campaigns.
Another problem with the Biden choice is that he does not bring any state to the Obama side. Delaware was going to vote Democratic this November before the choice of Biden. The Obama campaign has tried to play up the notion that Senator Biden was born in Scranton, PA, hoping that this might keep Pennsylvania in their column. However, on Biden’s Senate website, it does not mention Pennsylvania and in fact states that he grew up in New Castle County, Delaware, not Scranton, Pennsylvania. I know that Obama needs help in Pennsylvania after the problems he had during primary where he had some choice words for small town folks from Pennsylvania.
Another reason for picking Biden was the fact that he is Catholic. The Democrats have seen a decreasing amount of support from Catholics and others of faith. The main reason for this is abortion. By picking Biden, one must assume that Catholics across the country would overlook an issue that many Catholics consider very important – the right to life. If the choice was supposed to appease Catholics, they were wrong. Already, the Arch Bishop of Denver has come out against Biden.
The choice of Biden also highlight’s the lack of experience of Obama. If the choice of Biden was to shore up a weakness, I think with the pick of Biden, it only exaggerates the weakness. If one was to look at their two resumes, one would logically think that Biden was the Presidential candidate while Obama was the Vice Presidential candidate. Biden is more ready to be President than Obama is. It seems that Obama, through his great speeches, has gotten the general public to overlook his lack of a resume. Then again, he is tied in most polls with McCain in a year that Democrats have a decided advantage over Republicans. The American public does not yet trust Obama to be President.
The biggest problem of the Biden choice though has to do with Obama’s primary rivalry with Senator Hillary Clinton. The Clinton supporters are incredibly loyal and are upset at how the campaign ended. They feel that Senator Clinton, after winning 18 million primary votes, should be the nominee. In fact, many of her supporters have told pollsters that they will not vote for Obama. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll stated that only 52 percent of Clinton supporters will definitely vote for Obama. A bigger problem is that 30 percent said that they would vote for McCain or stay home. The McCain campaign already has a television ad up that has a female Clinton supporter who states that she will now vote for McCain. They also have an ad where they use Senator Clinton’s own words against Obama. They seem to really be trying to play up the angst between the two. Many media organizations have played up this issue as often as possible. The television coverage of the first night was all about would the Clinton supporters play nice with the Obama supporters. The fact that this issue still exists, even after Senator Clinton has gone on the road for Senator Obama, should cause most Democrats to be very worried about the chances in November.
Vice Presidential choices typically are not the reason someone votes for a particular candidate. However, with the upcoming election, one has to look at Senator Obama’s choice of Joe Biden and ask the simple question of, ‘Why?’ If Obama really wants to claim to be a new kind of politician why would he have chosen an old Senator? It does not make a whole lot of sense to me, but then again, I am not a Democrat.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

OLYMPIC FEVER

OLYMPIC FEVER, August 12, 2008
The Beijing Summer Olympics started this past weekend and I can only say that I am hooked. I have watched everything from women’s soccer, men and women’s water polo, men and women’s beach volleyball, men and women’s cycling, men’s tennis, men’s basketball, and of course men and women’s swimming. Prior to the Games, most of the focus was on Michael Phelps and his quest for exceeding Mark Spitz’s record seven gold medals in one Olympics. So far, he has met or exceeded all of our expectations.
In the three races that Phelps has competed in so far, he has set three world records and won three gold medals. The 4x100 free relay on Sunday night was one of the best races I have ever seen (I swam growing up). The last 25 meter swim by Jason Lezak was amazing, especially taking into consideration that he caught the French world record holder after spotting him a little over a half a second at the start. The reactions of the US team are what the Olympics are all about. Michael Phelps flexing and screaming, Lezak pumping his fist while still in the pool, and the other two members of the relay team sharing in the moment. As Lezak swam the final 50 meters, the TV coverage focused on the US team cheering on their teammate. It was a sight to see.
However, it has not just been the focus on Phelps that has held my attention. Last night I stayed up to see the end of the men’s gymnastics. The US team was leading after three rotations, in second after four and basically had to hold on to capture the bronze medal on the last apparatus. After two sub-par routines, Alexander Artemev, the last of the Americans to compete, unleashed a big air-style performance on the pommel horse, the final event, to secure the medal. I don’t know anything about gymnastics, but I couldn’t take my eyes off the coverage. I was pumping my fist and screaming at the TV to try and give the US team a little more encouragement. I am sure that my neighbors appreciated my screaming after the first routine… I also watched the women’s soccer teams match this morning against New Zealand. The US team won 4-0. While this might not seem like a big deal, following the US teams 2-0 loss to Norway to open up the games, it was a huge win for the tournament favorites. I have not spent too much time watching the men’s “Redeem Team”, basketball games. I saw bits of both the game against China and today’s game against Angola. I guess that since these games are such blowouts and that the “dream teams” of the past have been such a disappointment, I didn’t want to get to wrapped up in the game. However, I was really impressed that the men’s team participated in the opening ceremony and also attended the women’s team opening game. It shows that they are interested in the rest of the US team and are cheering them on. That seems to be a very different mentality from past Olympics.
So far, these Olympics have been terrific. We can only hope that once the track and field portion starts that the US continues to play well. We can only hope that there are no drug scandals or anything else to take away from what the Olympics are all about. I know that a lot of folks were suspicious of China in hosting the games based upon their human rights record, but this is not the time to raise political issues, instead it is a time to cheer on the great athletes representing our country and each of us.